Author(s)
Mohamed Amer Ahmed Mohamed, Almahdi Musa Attahir Musa, Rabie Mohamed Abdelrahim
- Manuscript ID: 140901
- Volume: 2
- Issue: 8
- Pages: 6–25
Subject Area: Management
Abstract
This study aimed to monitor and analyze the geographical factors and characteristics of the newly emerging climate dynamics in the Ed Dueim locality of the White Nile State. This was achieved by tracking the temporal behavior of temperature and rainfall over an extended observational series spanning 35 years (1990–2024) to bridge the research gap concerning the region’s microclimate.
The study employed both an applied geographical approach and an analytical statistical approach. The quantitative data were subjected to the Mann-Kendall test to detect general trends, and Theil-Sen’s slope estimator was used alongside calculations of extreme climate indices approved by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Correlation analyses were conducted using the SPSS software.
The findings revealed a statistically significant, linear upward trend ($p < 0.05$) in the mean annual temperature, with a faster rate of nocturnal warming observed in minimum temperatures, which in turn reduced the diurnal temperature range. Conversely, the analysis unveiled sharp fluctuations and violent swings in annual rainfall amounts, accompanied by a "seasonal shift" characterized by a delayed start to the autumn season, a shorter duration, and a transition in precipitation patterns toward intense, violent convective (cyclonic) rainstorms. Furthermore, the study proved the existence of a significant negative correlation between warming and rainfall efficacy, resulting from doubled evaporation rates from both the White Nile water body and the clayey soils. This has led to heat stress and a hidden agricultural drought that has severely harmed the productivity of food and cash crops (such as sorghum and sesame) and deteriorated rangelands. The study recommends the necessity of re-engineering agricultural cycles and sowing dates to align with the newly established seasonal shifts, introducing short-cycle and heat-stress-resistant crop varieties, improving drainage systems in Nile-adjacent agricultural projects to combat waterlogging, and establishing water harvesting projects (such as hafires and earthen dams) in remote pastoral areas to mitigate resource-based conflicts.